KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.70
Will more than 2700000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.7 million
$0.03

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.03 $0.03 3.0¢ 2.96%
NO $0.97 $0.98 $1.0 3.0¢ 97.09%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.03 717
NO $0.97 717 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.03 0.0 0
$0.98 0.0 717

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.030
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.04
NO Edge (ticks)-2.96
Vig (bps/h)2

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 24m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 25m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity68015
24h Volume0
Open Interest2
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0521.511987.84
0.2529.351980.0
0.5029.351980.0
0.7529.351980.0
0.9529.351980.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.7 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

Related Markets

2.8 million
$0.02
2.75 million
$0.02
2.65 million
$0.03
2.55 million
$0.03
2.6 million
$0.05
2.5 million
$0.06
2.45 million
$0.28
2.4 million
$0.89
2.35 million
$1.0
2.3 million
$1.0
2.25 million
$1.0
2.2 million
$1.0
2.15 million
$1.0
2.1 million
$1.0
2.05 million
$1.0
2 million
$1.0
1.95 million
$1.0
1.9 million
$1.0
1.85 million
$1.0
1.8 million
$1.0

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,700,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 3% | YES/NO spreads: 3¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 3% | Underround (bids): 3%.

Orderbook skew: The bid depth is heavily skewed towards the "No" side, with substantial sizes at the 1¢ and 97¢ levels. There are no current bids for "Yes," indicating a lack of interest in that outcome.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity indicates lack of engagement in this market.

External context:

  • Recent TSA data shows a gradual increase in screenings following the summer travel season. (Source: TSA)
  • Current trends in air travel suggest a weekly average above 2.7 million could be feasible based on seasonal patterns. (Source: Airlines for America)
  • Economic indicators point to increased consumer spending which may correlate with travel volume. (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 10%.
Rationale: The historical average for TSA screenings during this period typically exceeds 2.7 million, but risks from seasonality and economic fluctuations suggest a cautious approach.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Buy NO
Entry: $0.97 | Invalid/Stop: $0.90 | Target: $1.03
Thesis: Current weekly averages suggest significant pushback against hitting 2.7 million.
Key risks/catalysts: Economic downturn affecting travel, TSA updates, holiday spikes.

Idea 2 — Sell YES
Entry: $0.03 | Invalid/Stop: $0.05 | Target: $0.01
Thesis: Low probability of exceeding the threshold given seasonal trends.
Key risks/catalysts: Unforeseen travel demand, economic improvements.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, at 16:27 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): September 28, 2025, at 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: TSA weekly average travel data typically released each Monday.

Sources

  1. TSA Screening Data — tsa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
  2. Airlines for America Air Travel Trends — airlines.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
  3. Bureau of Economic Analysis Consumer Spending Reports — bea.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
  4. Federal Reserve Economic Data — fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
  5. U.S. Travel Association — ustravel.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
  6. American Airlines Weekly Forecast — aa.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
  7. United Airlines Market Insights — united.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
  8. Deloitte Travel and Hospitality Research — deloitte.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
  9. Travel Research Online Data Analysis — travelresearchonline.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
  10. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Travel Weather Patterns — noaa.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:27 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:21.478416

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →