KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.80
Will more than 2800000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.8 million
$0.02

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.02 $0.02 2.0¢ 1.98%
NO $0.98 $0.99 $1.0 2.0¢ 98.04%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.02 912
NO $0.98 912 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.02 0.0 0
$0.99 0.0 912

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.020
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.02
NO Edge (ticks)-1.98
Vig (bps/h)1

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 25m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 26m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity66824
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0518.241980.0
0.2518.241980.0
0.5018.241980.0
0.7518.241980.0
0.9518.241980.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.8 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,800,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 98¢ | Overround (asks): 2% | Underround (bids): 2%.
Orderbook skew: The market displays a significant bias towards “NO” with no active buy side at the moment, indicating concentrated liquidity in the “NO” position. Notable size in “NO” bids at 912 units suggests strength.
Recent prints: No recent trades recorded, indicating low trading activity.

External context: - TSA reported a decrease in travel demand following peak summer months as of late September. (Source: TSA Data Reports) - Last week’s screening averages were reported at approximately 2.5 million, suggesting current trends may not favor an uptick toward the expiration. (Source: TSA) - External forecasting indicates that seasonal factors typical of this late September period may further depress travel volumes. (Source: National Weather Service)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 5%.
Rationale: Given the current downward trend in TSA screening numbers, combined with seasonal factors and recent travel reports, a 5% probability is realistically aligned with recent data outputs.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short “YES”
Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.04 | Target: $0.01
Thesis: Probabilities heavily favor “NO” due to low current screening averages against historical data trends.
Key risks/catalysts: Surprising surge in travel beyond current trends, unseasonal spikes due to events or promotions.

Idea 2 — Long “NO”
Entry: $0.98 | Invalid/Stop: $0.96 | Target: $1.00
Thesis: Strong support for “NO” given concentrated liquidity and a downward trend in screening rates.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected rise in travel demand, fiscal stimuli or holiday-related spikes in travel.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:26 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00 ET.
Known release windows: TSA’s weekly travel report is expected by 2025-09-29.

Sources

  1. TSA Travel Data Reports — tsa.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
  2. National Weather Service Travel Forecast — weather.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
  3. U.S. Department of Transportation — dot.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
  4. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) — faa.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
  5. Bureau of Transportation Statistics — transtats.bts.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
  6. Airline Industry Reports — iata.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
  7. Economic Indicators — federalreserve.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
  8. Travel Trends — phocuswright.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
  9. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) — tsa.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
  10. National Travel and Tourism Office — travel.state.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:30 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:17.523301

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