KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.25
Will more than 2250000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.25 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.95 $0.97 $1.0 5.0¢ 95.12%
NO $0.0 $0.05 $0.05 5.0¢ 4.99%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.95 0 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.05 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.97 0.0 613
$0.05 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.950 – 1.000
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.88
NO Edge (ticks)-0.12
Vig (bps/h)4

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) -1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 23m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 24m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity68628
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0576.22
0.2520.0576.22
0.5020.0576.22
0.7520.0576.22
0.95596.220.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.25 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,250,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 97% | YES/NO spreads: 6¢ / 0¢ | Overround(asks): 6% | Underround(bids): 6%.

Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows significant depth on the YES side with a notable limit order of 2,000 contracts at $0.01 and 613 contracts at $0.94, indicating strong support for a YES outcome. There are no active NO bids, reflecting a one-sided market.

Recent prints: No recent trade activity was observed, indicating a lack of flow in the market at this moment.

External context: - TSA screening numbers have been on the rise as travel demand rebounds post-pandemic (TSA). - Recent labor trends show increased employment in the travel sector, which may drive higher travel rates and thus more screenings (BLS). - Historical data shows that TSA averages during peak travel weeks consistently exceed 2.25 million (TSA). - Weather forecasts indicate clear conditions across major travel hubs, likely supporting increased travel (NWS).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 95%.
Rationale: Current trends in travel and employment data suggest that screenings will remain above average, supported by past performance and favorable conditions.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Buy YES
Entry: 97¢ | Invalid/Stop: 90¢ | Target: $1.10
Thesis: Continued travel demand and supportive external factors will keep TSA screenings above 2.25 million.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected spikes in COVID-19 cases, severe weather events around travel hubs.

Idea 2 — Sell NO
Entry: 6¢ | Invalid/Stop: 10¢ | Target: 3¢
Thesis: Market underestimates the likelihood of screenings falling below the threshold given consistent upward trends.
Key risks/catalysts: Significant drops in travel data, policy changes affecting travel.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:26
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00
Known release windows: TSA screening numbers released weekly on Wednesdays.

Sources

  1. TSA Screening Data — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
  2. Employment Statistics — BLS.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
  3. Travel Industry Insights — U.S. Travel Association — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
  4. Weather Reports for Major Hubs — NWS.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
  5. Consumer Sentiment on Travel — Reuters — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
  6. Historical TSA Data — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
  7. Airline Industry Forecasts — IATA — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
  8. COVID-19 Travel Restrictions — CDC.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
  9. Travel Demand Trends — Travel Weekly — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
  10. Market Sentiment Reports — Business Insider — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:02.871395

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