KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.65
Will more than 2650000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.65 million
$0.03

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.03 $0.03 3.0¢ 2.96%
NO $0.97 $0.98 $1.0 3.0¢ 97.09%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.03 662
NO $0.97 662 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.03 0.0 0
$0.98 0.0 662

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.030
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.04
NO Edge (ticks)-2.96
Vig (bps/h)2

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 25m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 26m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity68162
24h Volume0
Open Interest2
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0519.861991.76
0.2531.621980.0
0.5031.621980.0
0.7531.621980.0
0.9531.621980.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.65 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,650,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 3% | YES/NO spreads: 3¢ / 2¢ | Overround (asks): 3.0% | Underround (bids): 3.0%.

Orderbook skew: No significant buy orders at YES levels; notable sell order at 0.03 with no buying depth. The majority of NO orders are positioned at lower price levels (0.01 and 0.88), indicating a bearish sentiment.

Recent prints: No recent trades reported; very light flow evident.

External context: - TSA weekly screening figures have been below 2.65 million recently, suggesting low volume relative to pre-pandemic levels. (Source: TSA) - Current travel trends show a decline in air travel due to economic uncertainties as reported by the BLS. (Source: BLS) - Recent holidays and travel events are typically not seen in September, thus reducing potential screening numbers. (Source: FAA)

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 2%

Rationale: The current travel trends, economic factors, and historical data indicate that average weekly screenings are unlikely to exceed the threshold of 2.65 million.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: 0.97 | Invalid/Stop: 1.00 | Target: 0.90
Thesis: Imminent economic scrutiny of travel could maintain screening averages below the threshold.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected surge in travel demand or policy changes promoting travel.

Idea 2 — Long YES
Entry: 0.03 | Invalid/Stop: 0.01 | Target: 0.06
Thesis: Potential last-minute increases in travel as travelers make plans for the weekend.
Key risks/catalysts: Low likelihood of achieving average thresholds given current trends.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:27
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00
Known release windows: TSA weekly screening report typically released the first weekday of the following week.

Sources

  1. TSA Weekly Screening Reports — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:00 ET
  2. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic Outlook — BLS.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:05 ET
  3. Federal Aviation Administration, Travel Trends — FAA.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:10 ET
  4. FRED Economic Data, Travel & Transportation — FRED.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:15 ET
  5. CME Group, Market Insights — CMEgroup.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:20 ET
  6. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Travel Weather Impact — NOAA.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:25 ET
  7. The Wall Street Journal, Screening Trends — WSJ.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:30 ET
  8. Travel Industry Association, Air Travel Statistics — TIA.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:35 ET
  9. Bloomberg, Economic Analysis — Bloomberg.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:40 ET
  10. Reuters, COVID-19 Impact on Travel — Reuters.com — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:45 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:24.640774

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