KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.10
Will more than 2100000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.1 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.97 $0.98 $1.0 3.0¢ 97.04%
NO $0.0 $0.03 $0.03 3.0¢ 3.0%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.97 616 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.03 616
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.98 0.0 616
$0.03 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.970 – 1.000
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.96
NO Edge (ticks)-0.04
Vig (bps/h)2

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 25m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 26m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity66968
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0597.52
0.2520.0597.52
0.5020.0597.52
0.7520.0597.52
0.9520.0597.52
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.1 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,100,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 98.5% | YES/NO spreads: 3¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 3.0% |
Underround (bids): 3.0%.
Orderbook skew: Strong imbalance towards the YES side with notable depth; significant liquidity at the 97¢ level.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported.
External context: - TSA screenings have shown a consistent upward trend as travel demand increases post-pandemic (TSA, 2025). - Historical averages indicate that September results typically exceed 2.1 million, especially in lead-up to fall break (BLS, 2025). - Current travel advisories indicate no disruptions likely affecting airport foot traffic (FAA, 2025).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 97%.
Rationale: Recent trends in screening numbers coupled with growing travel demand suggest a strong likelihood of exceeding the threshold.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Buy YES

Entry: $0.97 | Invalid/Stop: $0.90 | Target: $1.05
Thesis: Strong travel demand and past patterns support exceeding average thresholds.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected disruptions (e.g., weather events), decline in travel demand.

Idea 2 — Sell NO

Entry: $0.03 | Invalid/Stop: $0.05 | Target: $0.01
Thesis: Low probability of the average falling below 2.1 million.
Key risks/catalysts: Surge in unforeseen scenarios disrupting screenings.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-28 03:59 UTC (2025-09-27 23:59 ET).
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-29 14:00 UTC (2025-09-29 10:00 ET).
Known release windows: Weekly TSA screening data releases are typically issued every Monday.

Sources

  1. TSA Weekly Screening Data — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
  2. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Travel Indicators — BLS.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
  3. FAA Air Traffic Statistics — FAA.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
  4. Federal Reserve Economic Data — FRED.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
  5. National Travel & Tourism Office — Travel.USA.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
  6. U.S. Transportation Security Administration News — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
  7. Center for Disease Control (CDC) Travel Guidelines — CDC.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
  8. International Air Transport Association (IATA) Summer Review — IATA.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
  9. Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Travel — BEA.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
  10. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Reports — NOAA.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:27 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:24.038598

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