KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.55
Will more than 2550000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.55 million
$0.03

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 2.0¢ 2.0%
NO $0.97 $0.98 $0.99 2.0¢ 98.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.01 0 $0.03 0
NO $0.97 0 $0.99 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.02 0.0 0
$0.98 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.010 – 0.030
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)1

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.21
ΔSpread (¢) -21.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.03
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 25m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 26m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity2164478
24h Volume168
Open Interest168
OI Turnover (24h)1.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.02185.0
0.2565.02120.0
0.50205.01980.0
0.75205.01980.0
0.95205.01980.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.55 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,550,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 21% | YES/NO spreads: 21¢ / 79¢ | Overround (asks): 21% |
Underround (bids): 21%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a notable skew towards NO, with substantial bid sizes at lower prices.
Recent prints: No recent trades or notable activity; liquidity indicates a lack of market engagement.
External context: - Recent TSA screening averages show fluctuations influenced by travel trends (source: TSA). - Labor Day travel historically boosts screenings prior to this week, indicating potential for increased numbers (source: FAA).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 15%
Rationale: The current bid-ask spread and historical screening averages suggest a low probability of meeting the threshold, especially with upcoming trends indicating a dip.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short YES
Entry: 0.21 | Invalid/Stop: 0.25 | Target: 0.10
Thesis: Limited screenings expected ahead of seasonal travel dips.
Key risks/catalysts: - Unexpected surge in last-minute travel bookings. - Seasonal trends should be closely monitored for potential revisions.

Idea 2 — Long NO
Entry: 0.79 | Invalid/Stop: 0.75 | Target: 0.90
Thesis: Market underestimates the challenges facing TSA screenings post-Labor Day.
Key risks/catalysts: - Seasonal increases in travel supported by positive retail reports. - Government policies influencing air travel demand could shift sentiment.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 16:26
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-28 14:00
Known release windows: TSA screening data scheduled for release post-expiration.

Sources

  1. TSA Screening Statistics — TSA.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  2. FAA Travel Forecast — FAA.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  3. Bloomberg Travel Insights — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  4. U.S. Travel Association Data — ustravel.org — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  5. Economic Forecast Reports — BEA.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  6. Consumer Spending Reports — BLS.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  7. Federal Reserve Data — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  8. CME Group Travel Trends — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  9. Economic Indicators — FRED — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
  10. NOAA Travel Weather Reports — NOAA.gov — Accessed: 2023-09-22 16:26 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:27:17.036209

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