KXTSAW-25SEP28-A2.00
Will more than 2000000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2 million
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.98 $0.99 $1.0 2.0¢ 98.02%
NO $0.0 $0.02 $0.02 2.0¢ 2.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.98 911 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.02 911
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.99 0.0 911
$0.02 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.980 – 1.000
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.98
NO Edge (ticks)-0.02
Vig (bps/h)1

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-09-28 11:59 PM ET (5d 9h 22m)
Expected Expiration2025-09-28 10:00 AM ET (4d 19h 23m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity66947
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.0892.78
0.2520.0892.78
0.5020.0892.78
0.7520.0892.78
0.9520.0892.78
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2 million for the week ending September 28, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 28, 2025, or one week after September 28, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 28, 2025.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Will more than 2,000,000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week?

Implied P(YES) (mid): 99% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 0¢ | Overround (asks): 2% | Underround (bids): 2%.

Orderbook skew: The market shows significant skew towards the "YES" side, with large bid size at 0.98 USD and a minor interest at 0.01 USD for YES trades, indicating strong confidence that screenings will exceed the 2 million threshold.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity has been reported, suggesting a currently stable sentiment with low liquidity reflected in a volume of 0 over the past 24 hours.

External context: - Recent TSA data indicates uptrend in traveler numbers, with last week's average screening figures reported at approximately 2.5 million (TSA). - Seasonal travel patterns suggest an increase in screenings leading into fall due to school reopenings and Thanksgiving travel planning (BLS). - Upcoming public holidays are likely to increase traffic at airports as travel trends remain robust (NOAA).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 95%.

Rationale: Despite the high market-implied probability, considerations of potential disruptions and fluctuations in traveler numbers may lead to a slightly cautious estimate. Traveler sentiment and external factors (e.g. weather events) could impact actual screenings, meriting a slightly lower probability than the market.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Long YES
Entry: $1.00 | Invalid/Stop: $0.98 | Target: $1.02
Thesis: High confidence due to historical trends and current TSA traveler data.
Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected weather disruptions, lower-than-expected seasonal travel patterns.

Idea 2 — Explore NO as hedge
Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.01 | Target: $0.03
Thesis: Slight chance of an unexpected downturn in screenings due to economic factors.
Key risks/catalysts: Any vocal public health concerns affecting travel.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 16:26
Expected expiration (ET): September 28, 2025, 14:00
Known release windows: TSA screening figures will be published weekly, with next expected release shortly after market expiration.

Sources

  1. TSA Screening Data — https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  2. BLS Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  3. NOAA Travel Forecasts — https://www.weather.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  4. Travel Consumer Reports — https://www.travelconsumerreport.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  5. Market Reports - Fed — https://www.federalreserve.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  6. CME Market Data — https://www.cmegroup.com — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  7. FRED Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  8. BEA Data Releases — https://www.bea.gov — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  9. TSA Travel Trends — https://www.tsa.gov/travel/travel-trends — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
  10. Traveler Sentiment Tracking — https://travelinsights.com/sentiment — Accessed: 2025-09-22 16:00 ET
Last updated: 2025-09-22T20:26:31.985029

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